NHL
Saturday, October 17 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NJD
New Jersey Devils
Away
4-4-0
(1-2-0 Away)
Form
L
W
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.0
—
3.35
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
5-3-0
(4-1-0 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
NJD +1.5 (-265)WSH -1.5 (+215)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-105)Simulated 6.4
- Moneyline
-
NJD -105WSH -115
Simulated Outcome Probability
New Jersey Devils
44.5%
Washington Capitals
55.6%
No edge at -105
+2.1% edge at -115
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 55.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NJD +1.5 / WSH -1.5
NJD covers
(-265)
66.3%
WSH covers
(+215)
+2.0% Edge
33.7%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
+1.7% Edge
52.9%
UNDER
(-115)
47.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NJD Jake Allen (.897 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NJD dresses 2.81 goals/game of talent (led by Hughes, Bratt, Hischier) | WSH dresses 3.38 goals/game of talent (led by Tuch, Wilson, Ovechkin).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NJD 2.82 vs WSH 3.56 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.3% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (6.7%), 2-3 (6.7%), 3-4 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 51.1% no-vig, Over 6.0 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: NJD - Luke Evangelista (R) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: NJD - Connor Brown (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Pierre-Luc Dubois (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Justin Sourdif (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Matt Roy (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 55.6% of trials. Projected score: NJD 3.0 - WSH 3.35. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New Jersey Devils
Jake Allen
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 28
- Shots Faced
- 782
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 42
- Shots Faced
- 1154
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New Jersey Devils
W
vs New York Rangers
7 - 1
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
@ Detroit Red Wings
5 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Ottawa Senators
1 - 4
|
Oct 12, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
4 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Utah Mammoth
3 - 5
|
Oct 06, 2026
Washington Capitals
W
vs Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Seattle Kraken
3 - 5
|
Oct 11, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
3 - 1
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026