NHL
Monday, October 19 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Away
5-3-1
(2-2-0 Away)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.59
—
2.68
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Home
2-6-3
(2-2-2 Home)
Form
L
L
L
L
W
- Spread
-
COL -1.5 (+105)PHI +1.5 (-125)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
COL -240PHI +200
Simulated Outcome Probability
Colorado Avalanche
64.6%
Philadelphia Flyers
35.4%
No edge at -240
+2.1% edge at +200
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 64.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: COL -1.5 / PHI +1.5
COL covers
(+105)
41.6%
PHI covers
(-125)
+2.8% Edge
58.4%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
51.8%
UNDER
(-110)
48.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.897 projected SV%) vs PHI Joseph Woll (.898 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: COL dresses 3.44 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar) | PHI dresses 2.42 goals/game of talent (led by Zegras, Michkov, Dvorak).
- • 📐 Model Rates: COL 3.29 vs PHI 2.72 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.5% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (7.1%), 4-3 (6.2%), 2-3 (5.6%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (PHI 32.1% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Nicolas Roy (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Zachary L'Heureux (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Logan O'Connor (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ⚠️ Thin Roster: COL is short 1 healthy skater(s); filled with replacement-level call-ups.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Travis Konecny (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Owen Tippett (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Cam York (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 64.6% of trials. Projected score: COL 3.59 - PHI 2.68. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 740
Philadelphia Flyers
Joseph Woll
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 924
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Colorado Avalanche
Philadelphia Flyers
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Colorado Avalanche
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2
|
Oct 16, 2026
L
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Calgary Flames
7 - 3
|
Oct 08, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers
W
vs Ottawa Senators
3 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
vs Seattle Kraken
2 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 4
|
Oct 11, 2026
L
@ Boston Bruins
1 - 5
|
Oct 10, 2026