MLS
Wednesday, October 21 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DC
D.C. United
Away
7-12-10
Form
L
D
L
W
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.52
—
1.87
Expected Goals
CIN
FC Cincinnati
Home
9-9-11
Form
D
L
W
L
L
- Spread
-
DC +0.9 (-115)CIN -0.9 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-140)Simulated 3.4
- Moneyline
-
DC +310CIN -150
Simulated Outcome Probability
D.C. United Win
30.2%
Draw / Tie
24.8%
FC Cincinnati Win
45.0%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of D.C. United Win: 30.2%, Draw: 24.8%, and FC Cincinnati Win: 45.0%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.7%
#2
2-1
9.0%
#3
1-2
7.5%
#4
2-2
6.8%
#5
2-0
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
66.8%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
33.2%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DC +0.9 / CIN -0.9
DC covers
(-115)
+1.5% Edge
55.0%
CIN covers
(-110)
45.0%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-140)
43.5%
UNDER
(+110)
+9.0% Edge
56.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CIN projected match xG: 1.9 | DC projected match xG: 1.5 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CIN Win: 45.0% | Draw: 24.8% | DC Win: 30.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 66.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (6.8%), 2-0 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CIN record: 9-9-11 (Home: ) vs DC record: 7-12-10 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CIN factor: 0.971 | DC factor: 0.971 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CIN Moneyline** (45.0% simulated win probability vs 24.8% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **DC +0.9** (55.0% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (56.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.39). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (66.8% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
D.C. United
L
@ Orlando City SC
1 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
0 - 4
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
3 - 3
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
FC Cincinnati
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Oct 18, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
1 - 3
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026