NHL
Tuesday, October 20 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SJS
San Jose Sharks
Away
5-4-1
(3-2-1 Away)
Form
L
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.96
—
3.82
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
Home
4-3-2
(3-2-1 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
SJS +1.5 (-130)MTL -1.5 (+110)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-125)Simulated 6.8
- Moneyline
-
SJS +190MTL -230
Simulated Outcome Probability
San Jose Sharks
36.5%
Montréal Canadiens
63.5%
+2.0% edge at +190
No edge at -230
Our 10,000 iterations project the Montréal Canadiens to win outright in 63.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SJS +1.5 / MTL -1.5
SJS covers
(-130)
+2.1% Edge
58.6%
MTL covers
(+110)
41.4%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-125)
53.7%
UNDER
(+105)
46.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: SJS Alex Nedeljkovic (.896 projected SV%) vs MTL Jakub Dobes (.894 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: SJS dresses 2.95 goals/game of talent (led by Celebrini, Smith, Toffoli) | MTL dresses 3.17 goals/game of talent (led by Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson).
- • 📐 Model Rates: SJS 3.05 vs MTL 3.55 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.1% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.5%), 2-3 (6.4%), 3-2 (5.5%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (MTL 66.9% no-vig, Over 6.5 53.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: SJS - Alexander Wennberg (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Ivan Demidov (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Mike Matheson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Florian Xhekaj (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Montréal Canadiens winning in 63.5% of trials. Projected score: SJS 2.96 - MTL 3.82. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
San Jose Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 24
- Shots Faced
- 750
Montréal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 30
- Shots Faced
- 856
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
San Jose Sharks
Montréal Canadiens
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
San Jose Sharks
L
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3
|
Oct 19, 2026
L
@ Detroit Red Wings
3 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ Nashville Predators
3 - 2
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
vs Boston Bruins
3 - 6
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
Montréal Canadiens
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Washington Capitals
4 - 5
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Detroit Red Wings
1 - 0
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Nashville Predators
2 - 5
|
Oct 08, 2026