WNBA
Wednesday, October 21 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
GSV
Golden State Valkyries
Away
32-12
(15-7 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
79.4
—
78.2
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
30-14
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
GSV +3.5 (-110)ATL -3.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 152.3 (-110)Simulated 157.6
- Moneyline
-
GSV +135ATL -160
Simulated Outcome Probability
Golden State Valkyries
53.6%
Atlanta Dream
46.4%
+11.0% edge at +135
No edge at -160
Our 10,000 iterations project the Golden State Valkyries to win outright in 53.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: GSV +3.5 / ATL -3.5
GSV covers
(-110)
+10.2% Edge
62.6%
ATL covers
(-110)
37.4%
Total
O/U: 152.3
OVER
(-110)
+11.2% Edge
63.6%
UNDER
(-110)
36.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 117.3 vs GSV's Defensive Rating of 92.7.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 30-14 (Home: 15-7) vs GSV 32-12 (Away: 15-7).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.012 | GSV factor: 1.03 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Golden State Valkyries winning outright in 53.6% of trials. Projected score: GSV 79 - ATL 78.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 79.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 105.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 120.9
DRtg: 95.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 100.9
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.9% / 40.9%
3-Point %
34.5% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
79.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Golden State Valkyries
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Golden State Valkyries
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 79
|
Oct 19, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Dream
68 - 64
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
87 - 77
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
83 - 81
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
71 - 60
|
Oct 04, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
@ Golden State Valkyries
79 - 65
|
Oct 19, 2026
L
@ Golden State Valkyries
64 - 68
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
85 - 83
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
101 - 98
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated Golden State Valkyries
79 - 65
|
Oct 19, 2026
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
68 - 64
|
Oct 17, 2026
Away
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
88 - 83
|
Jul 04, 2026
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
78 - 75
|
Jun 26, 2026
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
77 - 66
|
Jun 24, 2026