NHL
Wednesday, October 21 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
2-6-3
(0-4-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
2.73
—
3.39
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
4-3-2
(3-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-165)BUF -1.5 (+135)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.1
- Moneyline
-
PHI +155BUF -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
39.1%
Buffalo Sabres
60.9%
No edge at +155
No edge at -185
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 60.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / BUF -1.5
PHI covers
(-165)
62.2%
BUF covers
(+135)
37.8%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
48.5%
UNDER
(-110)
51.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Dan Vladar (.898 projected SV%) vs BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.41 goals/game of talent (led by Zegras, Michkov, Dvorak) | BUF dresses 2.87 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Quinn).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 2.62 vs BUF 3.09 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.4% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.1%), 3-2 (6.4%), 3-4 (6.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 62.3% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Travis Konecny (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Owen Tippett (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Cam York (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Sam Carrick (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Matt Grzelcyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 60.9% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.73 - BUF 3.39. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 932
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 26
- Shots Faced
- 729
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
W
vs Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2
|
Oct 19, 2026
W
vs Ottawa Senators
3 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2
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Oct 15, 2026
L
vs Seattle Kraken
2 - 3
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Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 4
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Oct 11, 2026
Buffalo Sabres
L
@ Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
@ Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Florida Panthers
5 - 3
|
Oct 12, 2026
L
vs Utah Mammoth
1 - 4
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Oct 10, 2026