NHL
Thursday, October 22 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYR
New York Rangers
Away
7-3-1
(1-3-1 Away)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.3
—
3.31
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
5-4-2
(3-3-1 Home)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
- Spread
-
NYR -1.0 (+170)TOR +1.0 (-205)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-105)Simulated 6.6
- Moneyline
-
NYR -110TOR -105
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Rangers
49.9%
Toronto Maple Leafs
50.1%
No edge at -110
No edge at -105
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 50.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYR -1.0 / TOR +1.0
NYR covers
(+170)
37.0%
TOR covers
(-205)
63.0%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-105)
+0.3% Edge
51.5%
UNDER
(-115)
48.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NYR Dylan Garand (.900 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.890 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NYR dresses 2.79 goals/game of talent (led by Zibanejad, Fox, Lafrenière) | TOR dresses 3.03 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Matthews, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NYR 3.24 vs TOR 3.26 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.9% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (5.9%), 3-4 (5.9%), 2-3 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 49.4% no-vig, Over 6.5 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: NYR - Adam Sykora (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - John Tavares (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - Miles Wood (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - Chris Tanev (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 50.1% of trials. Projected score: NYR 3.3 - TOR 3.31. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New York Rangers
Dylan Garand
- Proj SV%
- .900
- Starts
- 8
- Shots Faced
- 212
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .890
- Starts
- 38
- Shots Faced
- 964
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Rangers
W
vs Anaheim Ducks
5 - 2
|
Oct 19, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
0 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ New Jersey Devils
1 - 7
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 1
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
6 - 2
|
Oct 11, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs
W
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
6 - 2
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
vs San Jose Sharks
3 - 1
|
Oct 19, 2026
L
vs New York Islanders
1 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 5
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
@ Utah Mammoth
4 - 5
|
Oct 13, 2026