NHL
Friday, October 23 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Away
7-2-0
(2-2-0 Away)
Form
W
L
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.17
—
3.36
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Home
5-4-1
(3-1-1 Home)
Form
W
L
W
L
L
- Spread
-
TBL +1.5 (-240)COL -1.5 (+195)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-100)Simulated 6.5
- Moneyline
-
TBL +105COL -125
Simulated Outcome Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning
46.9%
Colorado Avalanche
53.1%
No edge at +105
No edge at -125
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 53.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TBL +1.5 / COL -1.5
TBL covers
(-240)
68.8%
COL covers
(+195)
31.2%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-100)
+0.1% Edge
50.1%
UNDER
(-120)
49.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (.901 projected SV%) vs COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.897 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: TBL dresses 3.28 goals/game of talent (led by Kucherov, Hagel, Guentzel) | COL dresses 3.39 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar).
- • 📐 Model Rates: TBL 3.17 vs COL 3.39 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.2% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.5%), 3-4 (6.1%), 4-3 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (COL 53.2% no-vig, Over 6.5 47.8%).
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Yanni Gourde (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Nicolas Roy (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Zachary L'Heureux (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ⚠️ Thin Roster: COL is short 1 healthy skater(s); filled with replacement-level call-ups.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 53.1% of trials. Projected score: TBL 3.17 - COL 3.36. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Proj SV%
- .901
- Starts
- 42
- Shots Faced
- 1056
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 740
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Tampa Bay Lightning
W
@ Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 2
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
4 - 2
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Seattle Kraken
4 - 3
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
@ New York Rangers
1 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
@ New York Islanders
5 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
Colorado Avalanche
L
@ New Jersey Devils
3 - 4
|
Oct 20, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3
|
Oct 19, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2
|
Oct 16, 2026
L
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026