MLS
Sunday, October 25 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
LA Galaxy
Away
10-11-11
Form
W
W
L
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.35
—
1.78
Expected Goals
LAFC
LAFC
Home
12-11-9
Form
D
L
D
W
D
- Spread
-
LA -0.4 (-110)LAFC +0.4 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
LA +225LAFC +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
LA Galaxy Win
28.1%
Draw / Tie
25.2%
LAFC Win
46.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of LA Galaxy Win: 28.1%, Draw: 25.2%, and LAFC Win: 46.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.3%
#2
2-1
9.4%
#3
2-0
7.2%
#4
1-0
6.7%
#5
1-2
6.7%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA -0.4 / LAFC +0.4
LA covers
(-110)
28.0%
LAFC covers
(-110)
+19.6% Edge
72.0%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
38.4%
UNDER
(-110)
+9.2% Edge
61.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: LAFC projected match xG: 1.78 | LA projected match xG: 1.34 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: LAFC Win: 46.8% | Draw: 25.2% | LA Win: 28.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%), 1-0 (6.7%), 1-2 (6.7%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: LAFC record: 12-10-9 (Home: ) vs LA record: 10-10-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: LAFC factor: 0.991 | LA factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **LAFC Moneyline** (46.8% simulated win probability vs 25.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **LAFC +0.4** (72.0% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (61.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.13). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
LA Galaxy
L
vs San Diego FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Portland Timbers
2 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
2 - 6
|
Oct 11, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ Minnesota United FC
3 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
LAFC
L
@ New York City FC
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Austin FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
1 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ FC Dallas
0 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
@ San Jose Earthquakes
2 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
LAFC defeated LA Galaxy
3 - 0
|
Jul 17, 2026