MLB
Thursday, July 09 at 01:10 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
KC
Kansas City Royals
Away
38-55 (17-29 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
4.6
—
3.9
Projected Total: 8.5 (O/U: 9.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
KC: +120
|
NYM: -145
NYM
New York Mets
Home
39-54 (20-25 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Kansas City Royals Win Prob
55.0%
+9.5% Value Edge
New York Mets Win Prob
45.0%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Kansas City Royals to win outright in 55.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: KC +1.5 / NYM -1.5
KC covers
(-170)
+8.9% Edge
71.9%
NYM covers
(+145)
28.1%
Total
O/U: 9.0
OVER
(-100)
40.0%
UNDER
(+100)
+10.0% Edge
60.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: KC starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.020).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: NYM relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the KC bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at NYM's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Kansas City Royals winning outright in 55.0% of run trials, with a projected score of KC 4.6 - NYM 3.9. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with KC +1.5 covering in 71.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.0 which hit in 60.0% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
KC
Michael Wacha
Away Starter
ERA
3.32
WHIP
1.10
Record
8-8
IP
170.2
SO
136
GS
27
NYM
Sean Manaea
Home Starter
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.36
Record
4-7
IP
128.1
SO
122
GS
15
Top Offensive Performers
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Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Kansas City Royals
L
@ New York Mets
2 - 6
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ New York Mets
16 - 12
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Phillies
15 - 1
|
Jul 06, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Phillies
5 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Phillies
1 - 6
|
Jul 04, 2026
New York Mets
W
vs Kansas City Royals
6 - 2
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
vs Kansas City Royals
12 - 16
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Braves
7 - 6
|
Jul 06, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Braves
10 - 9
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Braves
3 - 14
|
Jul 04, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New York Mets defeated Kansas City Royals
6 - 2
|
Jul 08, 2026
Away
Kansas City Royals defeated New York Mets
16 - 12
|
Jul 07, 2026