NHL
Sunday, October 25 at 06:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYI
New York Islanders
Away
5-4-2
(1-3-1 Away)
Form
W
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
2.56
—
3.18
DAL
Dallas Stars
Home
7-3-1
(4-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
NYI +1.5 (-170)DAL -1.5 (+140)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (+110)Simulated 5.7
- Moneyline
-
NYI +155DAL -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Islanders
39.9%
Dallas Stars
60.1%
+0.7% edge at +155
No edge at -185
Our 10,000 iterations project the Dallas Stars to win outright in 60.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYI +1.5 / DAL -1.5
NYI covers
(-170)
+0.4% Edge
63.4%
DAL covers
(+140)
36.6%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(+110)
+1.1% Edge
48.7%
UNDER
(-130)
51.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ฅ Goaltending: NYI Ilya Sorokin (.902 projected SV%) vs DAL Jake Oettinger (.899 projected SV%).
- • ๐ Lineup Scoring: NYI dresses 2.55 goals/game of talent (led by Horvat, Schaefer, Schenn) | DAL dresses 2.9 goals/game of talent (led by Rantanen, Robertson, Johnston).
- • ๐ Model Rates: NYI 2.51 vs DAL 3.05 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • โฑ๏ธ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 21.3% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.7%), 3-2 (6.7%), 3-4 (5.7%).
- • ๐ต Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (DAL 62.3% no-vig, Over 5.5 45.7%).
- • โ Injury: NYI - Matias Maccelli (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • โ Injury: NYI - Calum Ritchie (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • โ Injury: NYI - Alexander Romanov (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • โ Injury: DAL - Matt Duchene (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • โ Injury: DAL - Sam Steel (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • โ Injury: DAL - Esa Lindell (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Dallas Stars winning in 60.1% of trials. Projected score: NYI 2.56 - DAL 3.18. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin
- Proj SV%
- .901
- Starts
- 40
- Shots Faced
- 1139
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger
- Proj SV%
- .899
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1007
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
New York Islanders
Dallas Stars
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Islanders
L
vs Los Angeles Kings
2 - 3
|
Oct 22, 2026
W
vs Anaheim Ducks
3 - 2
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Ottawa Senators
1 - 2
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
Dallas Stars
W
vs Winnipeg Jets
3 - 2
|
Oct 22, 2026
W
vs Boston Bruins
3 - 2
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
@ Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 0
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
vs Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026