NHL
Monday, October 26 at 08:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Away
7-5-2
(3-2-1 Away)
Form
L
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.41
—
3.12
CGY
Calgary Flames
Home
5-6-0
(4-3-0 Home)
Form
W
L
W
W
W
- Spread
-
TOR -1.5 (+170)CGY +1.5 (-205)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-120)Simulated 6.5
- Moneyline
-
TOR -135CGY +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Maple Leafs
54.9%
Calgary Flames
45.1%
No edge at -135
No edge at +115
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 54.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR -1.5 / CGY +1.5
TOR covers
(+170)
33.0%
CGY covers
(-205)
67.0%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-120)
50.2%
UNDER
(+100)
49.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.890 projected SV%) vs CGY Devin Cooley (.900 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: TOR dresses 3.06 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Matthews, Marchenko) | CGY dresses 2.16 goals/game of talent (led by Coronato, Frost, Farabee).
- • 📐 Model Rates: TOR 3.12 vs CGY 2.87 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.5% of trials. Most common finals: 4-3 (6.4%), 3-2 (6.3%), 2-3 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (CGY 44.7% no-vig, Over 6.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - John Tavares (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - Nick Blankenburg (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - Miles Wood (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: CGY - Jonathan Huberdeau (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: CGY - Samuel Honzek (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 54.9% of trials. Projected score: TOR 3.41 - CGY 3.12. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .888
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1038
Calgary Flames
Devin Cooley
- Proj SV%
- .900
- Starts
- 23
- Shots Faced
- 705
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto Maple Leafs
W
@ Edmonton Oilers
7 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
5 - 4
|
Oct 22, 2026
W
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
6 - 2
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
vs San Jose Sharks
3 - 1
|
Oct 19, 2026
L
vs New York Islanders
1 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
Calgary Flames
W
vs Detroit Red Wings
4 - 1
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Wild
2 - 1
|
Oct 22, 2026
W
vs Carolina Hurricanes
3 - 2
|
Oct 18, 2026
L
@ Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
@ Anaheim Ducks
4 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026