MLS
Wednesday, October 28 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
CF Montréal
Away
6-7-18
Form
W
L
L
D
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.24
—
1.88
Expected Goals
CLT
Charlotte FC
Home
13-8-10
Form
L
W
L
D
L
- Spread
-
MTL +0.9 (-115)CLT -0.9 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (+100)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
MTL +345CLT -155
Simulated Outcome Probability
CF Montréal Win
24.2%
Draw / Tie
24.8%
Charlotte FC Win
51.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of CF Montréal Win: 24.2%, Draw: 24.8%, and Charlotte FC Win: 51.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.4%
#2
2-1
9.5%
#3
2-0
7.8%
#4
1-0
6.9%
#5
1-2
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.5%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.5%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL +0.9 / CLT -0.9
MTL covers
(-115)
48.9%
CLT covers
(-110)
51.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(+100)
38.2%
UNDER
(-130)
+5.3% Edge
61.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLT projected match xG: 1.89 | MTL projected match xG: 1.26 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLT Win: 51.1% | Draw: 24.8% | MTL Win: 24.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.5% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%), 1-0 (6.9%), 1-2 (6.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLT record: 13-8-10 (Home: ) vs MTL record: 6-7-18 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLT factor: 0.971 | MTL factor: 0.971 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLT Moneyline** (51.1% simulated win probability vs 24.8% draw). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (61.8% cover probability, projected total: 3.12). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.5% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
CF Montréal
L
vs Nashville SC
0 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
vs Atlanta United FC
0 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
3 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
Charlotte FC
L
@ Portland Timbers
2 - 3
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
2 - 2
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Columbus Crew
1 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs FC Dallas
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
0 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Charlotte FC defeated CF Montréal
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026