MLS
Wednesday, October 28 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CIN
FC Cincinnati
Away
11-10-11
Form
W
L
L
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.48
—
2.04
Expected Goals
MIA
Inter Miami CF
Home
15-11-6
Form
L
W
W
W
L
- Spread
-
CIN +1.1 (-110)MIA -1.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 4.1 (-105)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
CIN +385MIA -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
FC Cincinnati Win
26.9%
Draw / Tie
23.5%
Inter Miami CF Win
49.6%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of FC Cincinnati Win: 26.9%, Draw: 23.5%, and Inter Miami CF Win: 49.6%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
9.9%
#2
2-1
9.1%
#3
2-2
6.9%
#4
1-2
6.7%
#5
3-1
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
68.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
31.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CIN +1.1 / MIA -1.1
CIN covers
(-110)
+18.0% Edge
70.4%
MIA covers
(-110)
29.6%
Total
O/U: 4.1
OVER
(-105)
27.4%
UNDER
(-120)
+18.1% Edge
72.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MIA projected match xG: 2.03 | CIN projected match xG: 1.47 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MIA Win: 49.6% | Draw: 23.5% | CIN Win: 26.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 68.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.9%), 1-2 (6.7%), 3-1 (6.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MIA record: 15-10-6 (Home: ) vs CIN record: 11-9-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIA factor: 1.021 | CIN factor: 1.021 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MIA Moneyline** (49.6% simulated win probability vs 23.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CIN +1.1** (70.4% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 4.1 Goals** (72.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.52). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (68.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
FC Cincinnati
W
@ D.C. United
2 - 0
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
2 - 1
|
Oct 21, 2026
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Oct 18, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
Inter Miami CF
L
@ Red Bull New York
0 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs New York City FC
2 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
4 - 0
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Columbus Crew
1 - 2
|
Sep 27, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Inter Miami CF defeated FC Cincinnati
5 - 3
|
May 13, 2026