NHL
Wednesday, October 28 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
3-7-4
(1-4-1 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.61
—
3.67
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
6-4-0
(5-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-130)WSH -1.5 (+110)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-115)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
PHI +200WSH -240
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
33.4%
Washington Capitals
66.6%
+0.1% edge at +200
No edge at -240
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 66.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / WSH -1.5
PHI covers
(-130)
55.9%
WSH covers
(+110)
44.1%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-115)
51.7%
UNDER
(-105)
48.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Joseph Woll (.897 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.56 goals/game of talent (led by Zegras, Michkov, Dvorak) | WSH dresses 3.34 goals/game of talent (led by Tuch, Wilson, Strome).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 2.62 vs WSH 3.47 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 17.9% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.3%), 3-4 (5.8%), 3-2 (5.5%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 67.9% no-vig, Over 6.0 51.1%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Travis Konecny (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Owen Tippett (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Rasmus Ristolainen (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Rasmus Sandin (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Vincent Desharnais (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 66.6% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.61 - WSH 3.67. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Joseph Woll
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 30
- Shots Faced
- 950
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 42
- Shots Faced
- 1154
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
L
vs Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 4
|
Oct 27, 2026
L
vs Anaheim Ducks
4 - 5
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Oct 24, 2026
W
@ Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1
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Oct 21, 2026
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vs Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2
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Oct 19, 2026
W
vs Ottawa Senators
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Oct 17, 2026
Washington Capitals
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vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
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Oct 24, 2026
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vs Los Angeles Kings
2 - 5
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Oct 20, 2026
W
vs New Jersey Devils
4 - 2
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Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4
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Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 4
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Oct 13, 2026