NHL
Thursday, October 29 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WPG
Winnipeg Jets
Away
4-5-3
(2-1-2 Away)
Form
L
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.6
—
3.64
TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Home
7-3-1
(5-0-0 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
WPG +1.5 (-125)TBL -1.5 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
WPG +195TBL -235
Simulated Outcome Probability
Winnipeg Jets
33.1%
Tampa Bay Lightning
66.9%
No edge at +195
No edge at -235
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Lightning to win outright in 66.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WPG +1.5 / TBL -1.5
WPG covers
(-125)
+0.4% Edge
56.0%
TBL covers
(+105)
44.0%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
51.3%
UNDER
(-110)
48.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: WPG Stuart Skinner (.894 projected SV%) vs TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (.900 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: WPG dresses 2.5 goals/game of talent (led by Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi) | TBL dresses 3.25 goals/game of talent (led by Kucherov, Guentzel, Hagel).
- • 📐 Model Rates: WPG 2.51 vs TBL 3.55 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.4% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.4%), 3-4 (6.1%), 3-2 (5.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TBL 67.4% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: WPG - Josh Morrissey (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WPG - Vladislav Namestnikov (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Yanni Gourde (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Zemgus Girgensons (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Lightning winning in 66.9% of trials. Projected score: WPG 2.6 - TBL 3.64. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Winnipeg Jets
Stuart Skinner
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 38
- Shots Faced
- 996
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Proj SV%
- .900
- Starts
- 43
- Shots Faced
- 1079
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Winnipeg Jets
Tampa Bay Lightning
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Winnipeg Jets
L
vs Florida Panthers
1 - 5
|
Oct 27, 2026
L
vs Montréal Canadiens
1 - 2
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Oct 25, 2026
L
@ Dallas Stars
2 - 3
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Oct 22, 2026
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@ St. Louis Blues
1 - 2
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Oct 20, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3
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Oct 17, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning
L
@ Utah Mammoth
4 - 5
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Colorado Avalanche
3 - 6
|
Oct 23, 2026
W
@ Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 2
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Oct 20, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
4 - 2
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Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Seattle Kraken
4 - 3
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Oct 15, 2026