NBA
Thursday, October 29 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away
3-1
(0-1 Away)
Form
L
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
118.8
—
118.2
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
Home
2-3
(0-2 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
L
- Spread
-
CLE +1.0 (-110)ATL -1.0 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 237.5 (-110)Simulated 237.0
- Moneyline
-
CLE -100ATL -115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Cleveland Cavaliers
52.1%
Atlanta Hawks
47.9%
+2.1% edge at -100
No edge at -115
Our 10,000 iterations project the Cleveland Cavaliers to win outright in 52.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLE +1.0 / ATL -1.0
CLE covers
(-110)
+1.6% Edge
54.0%
ATL covers
(-110)
46.0%
Total
O/U: 237.5
OVER
(-110)
48.4%
UNDER
(-110)
51.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: CLE rotation carries 127.4 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Mitchell, Harden, Mobley) | ATL rotation carries 111.9 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Johnson, McCollum, Alexander-Walker).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: CLE allows 115.6/game | ATL allows 116.0/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: CLE by 4.1, total 234.2 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (ATL -1.0, total 237.5).
- • 😴 Back-to-Back: CLE played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
- • 😴 Back-to-Back: ATL played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Jaylon Tyson is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 21.9 minutes.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Meleek Thomas is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 15.0 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Mouhamed Gueye is Out; his 15.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Cleveland Cavaliers winning in 52.1% of trials. Projected score: CLE 119 - ATL 118. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Top Players (Per Game)
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Cleveland Cavaliers
Atlanta Hawks
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Cleveland Cavaliers
W
vs Washington Wizards
121 - 111
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Timberwolves
127 - 125
|
Oct 26, 2026
W
vs Brooklyn Nets
125 - 121
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia 76ers
106 - 114
|
Oct 22, 2026
Atlanta Hawks
L
vs Miami Heat
117 - 129
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Houston Rockets
110 - 120
|
Oct 26, 2026
L
vs Houston Rockets
114 - 121
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
@ Charlotte Hornets
128 - 81
|
Oct 23, 2026
W
@ Orlando Magic
132 - 125
|
Oct 21, 2026