NBA Thursday, October 29 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away 3-1 (0-1 Away)
L W W W
Projected Final Score
118.8 — 118.2
ATL

Atlanta Hawks

Home 2-3 (0-2 Home)
W W L L L
Spread
CLE +1.0 (-110)
ATL -1.0 (-110)
Total
Posted 237.5 (-110)
Simulated 237.0
Moneyline
CLE -100
ATL -115

Simulated Outcome Probability

Cleveland Cavaliers
52.1%
Atlanta Hawks
47.9%
+2.1% edge at -100
No edge at -115

Our 10,000 iterations project the Cleveland Cavaliers to win outright in 52.1% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: CLE +1.0 / ATL -1.0
CLE covers (-110) +1.6% Edge 54.0%
ATL covers (-110) 46.0%
Total O/U: 237.5
OVER (-110) 48.4%
UNDER (-110) 51.6%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: CLE rotation carries 127.4 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Mitchell, Harden, Mobley) | ATL rotation carries 111.9 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Johnson, McCollum, Alexander-Walker).
  • • 🛡️ Team Defense: CLE allows 115.6/game | ATL allows 116.0/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
  • • 📐 Model Line: CLE by 4.1, total 234.2 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
  • • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (ATL -1.0, total 237.5).
  • • 😴 Back-to-Back: CLE played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
  • • 😴 Back-to-Back: ATL played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
  • • ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Jaylon Tyson is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 21.9 minutes.
  • • ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Meleek Thomas is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 15.0 minutes.
  • • ❌ Injury: ATL - Mouhamed Gueye is Out; his 15.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Cleveland Cavaliers winning in 52.1% of trials. Projected score: CLE 119 - ATL 118. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.

Top Players (Per Game)

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Cleveland Cavaliers

Atlanta Hawks

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Cleveland Cavaliers

W vs Washington Wizards
121 - 111 | Oct 28, 2026
W vs Minnesota Timberwolves
127 - 125 | Oct 26, 2026
W vs Brooklyn Nets
125 - 121 | Oct 24, 2026
L @ Philadelphia 76ers
106 - 114 | Oct 22, 2026

Atlanta Hawks

L vs Miami Heat
117 - 129 | Oct 28, 2026
L @ Houston Rockets
110 - 120 | Oct 26, 2026
L vs Houston Rockets
114 - 121 | Oct 24, 2026
W @ Charlotte Hornets
128 - 81 | Oct 23, 2026
W @ Orlando Magic
132 - 125 | Oct 21, 2026