MLS
Saturday, October 31 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ORL
Orlando City SC
Away
12-7-13
Form
W
D
W
D
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.59
—
1.94
Expected Goals
CLT
Charlotte FC
Home
14-8-10
Form
W
L
D
L
W
- Spread
-
ORL +0.5 (-105)CLT -0.5 (-120)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-145)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
ORL +240CLT -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Orlando City SC Win
31.2%
Draw / Tie
23.5%
Charlotte FC Win
45.2%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Orlando City SC Win: 31.2%, Draw: 23.5%, and Charlotte FC Win: 45.2%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.0%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
7.5%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
3-1
6.1%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
31.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ORL +0.5 / CLT -0.5
ORL covers
(-105)
+3.6% Edge
54.8%
CLT covers
(-120)
45.2%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-145)
46.9%
UNDER
(+110)
+5.5% Edge
53.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLT projected match xG: 1.97 | ORL projected match xG: 1.6 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLT Win: 45.2% | Draw: 23.5% | ORL Win: 31.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.1%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLT record: 14-8-10 (Home: ) vs ORL record: 12-7-13 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLT factor: 1.001 | ORL factor: 1.021 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLT Moneyline** (45.2% simulated win probability vs 23.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **ORL +0.5** (54.8% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Orlando City SC
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
vs New York City FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
4 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
3 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
Charlotte FC
W
vs CF Montréal
4 - 0
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Portland Timbers
2 - 3
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
2 - 2
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Columbus Crew
1 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs FC Dallas
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Orlando City SC defeated Charlotte FC
4 - 1
|
Apr 22, 2026