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MLS Saturday, October 31 at 02:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DC

D.C. United

Away 7-12-13
W L L L L
Projected Expected Goals
1.27 — 2.04
Expected Goals
CLB

Columbus Crew

Home 12-5-15
L W W W W
Spread
DC -0.8 (-110)
CLB +0.8 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.3 (-110)
Simulated 3.3
Moneyline
DC +275
CLB -120

Simulated Outcome Probability

D.C. United Win
22.5%
Draw / Tie
23.4%
Columbus Crew Win
54.1%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of D.C. United Win: 22.5%, Draw: 23.4%, and Columbus Crew Win: 54.1%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.8%
#2
2-1
9.5%
#3
2-0
8.0%
#4
3-1
6.4%
#5
2-2
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
63.7%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
36.3%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: DC -0.8 / CLB +0.8
DC covers (-110) 22.5%
CLB covers (-110) +25.1% Edge 77.5%
Total O/U: 3.3
OVER (-110) 42.3%
UNDER (-110) +5.3% Edge 57.7%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 2.03 | DC projected match xG: 1.27 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 54.1% | Draw: 23.4% | DC Win: 22.5%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 63.7% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%), 3-1 (6.4%), 2-2 (6.4%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 12-5-15 (Home: ) vs DC record: 7-12-13 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 1.051 | DC factor: 0.961 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (54.1% simulated win probability vs 23.4% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.8** (77.5% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (57.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.31). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (63.7% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

D.C. United

L @ Toronto FC
1 - 2 | Oct 28, 2026
L vs FC Cincinnati
0 - 2 | Oct 24, 2026
L @ FC Cincinnati
1 - 2 | Oct 21, 2026
L @ Orlando City SC
1 - 4 | Oct 17, 2026
W vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1 | Oct 14, 2026

Columbus Crew

W @ FC Dallas
2 - 0 | Oct 28, 2026
W vs Toronto FC
4 - 2 | Oct 24, 2026
W @ FC Cincinnati
2 - 0 | Oct 18, 2026
W vs Charlotte FC
3 - 1 | Oct 14, 2026
L @ Orlando City SC
2 - 3 | Oct 10, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home D.C. United defeated Columbus Crew
2 - 1 | Sep 09, 2026