MLS
Sunday, November 01 at 04:30 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto FC
Away
9-12-11
Form
W
D
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.55
—
1.78
Expected Goals
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Home
8-6-18
Form
L
W
L
L
L
- Spread
-
TOR +0.4 (-140)ATL -0.4 (+110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (+105)Simulated 3.3
- Moneyline
-
TOR +185ATL +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto FC Win
32.0%
Draw / Tie
25.3%
Atlanta United FC Win
42.6%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Toronto FC Win: 32.0%, Draw: 25.3%, and Atlanta United FC Win: 42.6%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
2-1
8.4%
#3
1-2
7.2%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
2-0
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
66.7%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
33.3%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR +0.4 / ATL -0.4
TOR covers
(-140)
57.4%
ATL covers
(+110)
42.6%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(+105)
42.9%
UNDER
(-135)
57.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: ATL projected match xG: 1.78 | TOR projected match xG: 1.57 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: ATL Win: 42.6% | Draw: 25.3% | TOR Win: 32.0%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 66.7% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.2%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-0 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: ATL record: 8-6-18 (Home: ) vs TOR record: 9-12-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 0.961 | TOR factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **ATL Moneyline** (42.6% simulated win probability vs 25.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **TOR +0.4** (57.4% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (57.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.33). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (66.7% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto FC
W
vs D.C. United
2 - 1
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Columbus Crew
2 - 4
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
2 - 0
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
vs Orlando City SC
3 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs CF Montréal
2 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
Atlanta United FC
L
@ New York City FC
1 - 2
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
2 - 3
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
vs Inter Miami CF
1 - 3
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
@ CF Montréal
3 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
vs FC Cincinnati
1 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta United FC defeated Toronto FC
2 - 1
|
Apr 25, 2026