MLS
Sunday, November 01 at 04:30 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
RBNY
Red Bull New York
Away
11-6-15
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.16
—
1.99
Expected Goals
NSH
Nashville SC
Home
21-8-3
Form
W
W
D
W
D
- Spread
-
RBNY -0.8 (-110)NSH +0.8 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.2 (-110)Simulated 3.2
- Moneyline
-
RBNY +375NSH -145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Red Bull New York Win
20.9%
Draw / Tie
23.9%
Nashville SC Win
55.3%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Red Bull New York Win: 20.9%, Draw: 23.9%, and Nashville SC Win: 55.3%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
2-1
9.8%
#3
2-0
7.9%
#4
1-0
7.8%
#5
3-1
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
60.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
39.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: RBNY -0.8 / NSH +0.8
RBNY covers
(-110)
20.9%
NSH covers
(-110)
+26.7% Edge
79.1%
Total
O/U: 3.2
OVER
(-110)
38.5%
UNDER
(-110)
+9.1% Edge
61.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NSH projected match xG: 1.97 | RBNY projected match xG: 1.17 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NSH Win: 55.3% | Draw: 23.9% | RBNY Win: 20.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 60.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (7.9%), 1-0 (7.8%), 3-1 (6.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NSH record: 21-8-3 (Home: ) vs RBNY record: 11-6-15 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NSH factor: 1.041 | RBNY factor: 0.991 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NSH Moneyline** (55.3% simulated win probability vs 23.9% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NSH +0.8** (79.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (61.5% cover probability, projected total: 3.15). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (60.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Red Bull New York
L
@ New England Revolution
2 - 3
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
vs Inter Miami CF
2 - 0
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 2
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
1 - 2
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs San Diego FC
4 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
Nashville SC
L
vs Philadelphia Union
0 - 0
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
@ CF Montréal
2 - 0
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ San Jose Earthquakes
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
4 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Austin FC
4 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Nashville SC defeated Red Bull New York
1 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026