MLS
Sunday, November 01 at 03:30 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SEA
Seattle Sounders FC
Away
11-10-11
Form
W
L
D
D
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.28
—
1.79
Expected Goals
VAN
Vancouver Whitecaps
Home
17-7-8
Form
D
D
W
L
W
- Spread
-
SEA -0.5 (-110)VAN +0.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
SEA +235VAN +105
Simulated Outcome Probability
Seattle Sounders FC Win
26.2%
Draw / Tie
25.8%
Vancouver Whitecaps Win
48.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Seattle Sounders FC Win: 26.2%, Draw: 25.8%, and Vancouver Whitecaps Win: 48.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.9%
#2
2-1
9.5%
#3
2-0
7.3%
#4
1-0
7.1%
#5
1-2
6.8%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SEA -0.5 / VAN +0.5
SEA covers
(-110)
26.2%
VAN covers
(-110)
+21.4% Edge
73.8%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
37.0%
UNDER
(-110)
+10.6% Edge
63.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: VAN projected match xG: 1.81 | SEA projected match xG: 1.28 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: VAN Win: 48.1% | Draw: 25.8% | SEA Win: 26.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%), 1-0 (7.1%), 1-2 (6.8%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: VAN record: 17-7-8 (Home: ) vs SEA record: 11-10-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: VAN factor: 1.011 | SEA factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **VAN Moneyline** (48.1% simulated win probability vs 25.8% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **VAN +0.5** (73.8% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (63.0% cover probability, projected total: 3.07). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Seattle Sounders FC
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 1
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ San Diego FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ FC Dallas
0 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ New England Revolution
3 - 0
|
Oct 10, 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
W
vs San Diego FC
4 - 1
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
@ Austin FC
2 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
0 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ LAFC
1 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Vancouver Whitecaps defeated Seattle Sounders FC
2 - 0
|
Aug 16, 2026