MLB
Saturday, July 11 at 04:05 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
59-34
(30-16 Away)
Form
W
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
5.1
—
3.2
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
47-47
(24-24 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
MIL -1.5 (+120)PIT +1.5 (-145)
- Total
-
Posted 9.0 (-115)Simulated 8.3
- Moneyline
-
MIL -130PIT +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
66.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates
33.4%
+10.1% edge at -130
No edge at +110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Milwaukee Brewers to win outright in 66.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / PIT +1.5
MIL covers
(+120)
+8.0% Edge
53.5%
PIT covers
(-145)
46.5%
Total
O/U: 9.0
OVER
(-115)
38.0%
UNDER
(-105)
+10.8% Edge
62.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 73%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Milwaukee Brewers winning outright in 66.6% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 5.1 - PIT 3.2. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL -1.5 covering in 53.5% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.0 which hit in 62.0% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Shane Drohan
Away Starter
ERA
4.19
WHIP
1.32
Record
7-5
IP
124.2
SO
125
GS
19
PIT
Bubba Chandler
Home Starter
ERA
4.62
WHIP
1.40
Record
8-10
IP
154.0
SO
140
GS
30
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
L
@ Pittsburgh Pirates
6 - 7
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
8 - 4
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 5
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
10 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
W
vs Milwaukee Brewers
7 - 6
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
5 - 10
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
11 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
7 - 6
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - 0
|
Apr 26, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 3
|
Apr 25, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 0
|
Apr 24, 2026