MLB
Sunday, July 12 at 12:15 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
59-36 (30-18 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
3.8
—
4.3
Projected Total: 8.1 (O/U: 8.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIL: +105
|
PIT: -120
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
49-47 (26-24 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers Win Prob
43.3%
No Value Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates Win Prob
56.7%
+2.2% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 56.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL +1.0 / PIT -1.0
MIL covers
(-160)
52.5%
PIT covers
(+135)
+4.9% Edge
47.5%
Total
O/U: 8.0
OVER
(-115)
45.8%
UNDER
(-105)
+3.0% Edge
54.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: PIT enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 70%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 56.7% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 3.9 - PIT 4.2. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL +1.0 covering in 52.5% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 8.0 which hit in 54.2% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Robert Gasser
Away Starter
ERA
4.57
WHIP
1.29
Record
4-5
IP
86.2
SO
82
GS
16
PIT
Paul Skenes
Home Starter
ERA
3.97
WHIP
1.16
Record
9-11
IP
149.2
SO
179
GS
28
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
L
@ Pittsburgh Pirates
2 - 3
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
@ Pittsburgh Pirates
6 - 7
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
8 - 4
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 5
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
10 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
W
vs Milwaukee Brewers
3 - 2
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
vs Milwaukee Brewers
7 - 6
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
5 - 10
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
3 - 2
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
7 - 6
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - 0
|
Apr 26, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 3
|
Apr 25, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 0
|
Apr 24, 2026