MLB
Tuesday, July 07 at 02:15 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
56-33
(27-15 Away)
Form
L
W
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
4.9
—
2.4
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
47-41
(23-22 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
MIL -1.5 (-115)STL +1.5 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 7.0 (-115)Simulated 7.3
- Moneyline
-
MIL -345STL +270
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
75.7%
St. Louis Cardinals
24.3%
No edge at -345
No edge at +270
Our 10,000 iterations project the Milwaukee Brewers to win outright in 75.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / STL +1.5
MIL covers
(-115)
+8.4% Edge
61.9%
STL covers
(-105)
38.2%
Total
O/U: 7.0
OVER
(-115)
46.5%
UNDER
(-105)
+2.3% Edge
53.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: STL starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.026).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: MIL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the STL bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 70%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Milwaukee Brewers winning outright in 75.7% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.9 - STL 2.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL -1.5 covering in 61.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.0 which hit in 53.5% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
Away Starter
ERA
1.80
WHIP
0.80
Record
16-5
IP
174.2
SO
252
GS
30
STL
Matt Svanson
Home Starter
ERA
7.27
WHIP
1.75
Record
2-3
IP
43.1
SO
41
GS
1
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
W
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
3 - 2
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
3 - 4
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Arizona Diamondbacks
7 - 4
|
Jul 03, 2026
L
vs Cincinnati Reds
2 - 7
|
Jul 02, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
L
vs Milwaukee Brewers
3 - 4
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Chicago Cubs
4 - 6
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Chicago Cubs
3 - 0
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Chicago Cubs
17 - 1
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Braves
11 - 5
|
Jul 02, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
2 - 1
|
May 27, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
6 - 0
|
May 26, 2026
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
5 - 1
|
May 25, 2026
Away
Milwaukee Brewers defeated St. Louis Cardinals
6 - 2
|
May 06, 2026