MLB
Saturday, July 11 at 12:05 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
59-34 (30-16 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
4.2
—
5.0
Projected Total: 9.2 (O/U: 9.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIL: -130
|
PIT: +110
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
47-47 (24-24 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers Win Prob
39.8%
No Value Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates Win Prob
60.2%
+12.6% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 60.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / PIT +1.5
MIL covers
(+130)
29.6%
PIT covers
(-150)
+10.4% Edge
70.4%
Total
O/U: 9.0
OVER
(-100)
48.7%
UNDER
(-100)
+1.3% Edge
51.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PIT starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.067).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 73%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 60.2% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.2 - PIT 5.1. The strongest model variance is on the spread: take PIT +1.5 (covers in 70.4% of simulations).
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Brandon Sproat
Away Starter
ERA
5.27
WHIP
1.42
Record
3-7
IP
95.2
SO
100
GS
19
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Home Starter
ERA
3.59
WHIP
1.08
Record
14-5
IP
160.1
SO
164
GS
27
Top Offensive Performers
Sort by:
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
8 - 4
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 5
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
10 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
L
vs Atlanta Braves
5 - 10
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
11 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
7 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - 0
|
Apr 26, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 3
|
Apr 25, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 0
|
Apr 24, 2026